Lipid measures for prediction of incident cardiovascular disease in diabetic and non-diabetic adults: results of the 8.6 years follow-up of a population based cohort study

Table 3 Hazard ratios and discrimination of lipid measures for predicting cardiovascular events in non-diabetic men and women

		Age adjusted model		Multivariate adjusted model
	SD (mmol/L)	Hazard ratio (95%CI)	P value	Hazard ratio (95%CI)	P value	C index (95% CI)	AIC
men
TC	1.07	1.25(1.08-1.44)	0.002	1.21(1.04-1.41)	0.009	0.76(0.73-0.80)	2389
LDL-C	0.91	1.24(1.07-1.44)	0.004	1.23(1.06-1.44)	0.006	0.77(0.74-0.80)	2236
HDL-C	0.24	0.83(0.71-0.97)	0.026	0.83(0.70-0.97)	0.02	0.77(0.73-0.80)	2374
Non-HDL-C	1.07	1.30(1.13-1.50)	<0.001	1.27(1.10-1.48)	0.001	0.77(0.74-0.80)	2369
TG	0.54*	1.19(1.03-1.37)	0.013	1.13(0.96-1.32)	0.12	0.76(0.73-0.79)	2393
TC/HDL-C	1.71	1.28(1.12-1.46)	<0.001	1.29(1.12-1.48)	<0.001	0.77(0.74-0.80)	2368
TG/HDL-C	0.68*	1.25(1.07-1.47)	0.005	1.20(1.01-1.43)	0.03	0.76(0.73-0.80)	2375
women
TC	1.17	1.29(1.08-1.55)	0.005	1.22(1.01-1.48)	0.03	0.84(0.81-0.87)	1313
LDL-C	0.98	1.30(1.06-1.59)	0.01	1.22(0.99-1.49)	0.05	0.84(0.80-0.87)	1206
HDL-C	0.28	0.95(0.78-1.17)	0.68	1.00(0.81-1.24)	0.94	0.84(0.80-0.87)	1317
Non-HDL-C	1.18	1.30(1.08-1.56)	0.004	1.22(1.01-1.48)	0.03	0.84(0.81-0.87)	1313
TG	0.52*	1.36(1.10-1.68)	0.004	1.27(1.01-1.59)	0.03	0.84(0.81-0.87)	1313
TC/HDL-C	1.63	1.24(1.04-1.47)	0.01	1.17(0.97-1.41)	0.09	0.84(0.81-0.87)	1314
TG/HDL-C	0.66*	1.30(1.05-1.62)	0.01	1.21(0.96-1.52)	0.10	0.84(0.80-0.87)	1314

SD: standard deviation, TC: total cholesterol, LDL-C: low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HDL-C: high density lipoprotein cholesterol, TG: triglyceride, CI: confidence interval. Hazard ratios indicate the increase risk for a 1 SD increase of each lipid parameter. Multivariate models were adjusted for age, family history of premature CVD, WHR, SBP and aspirin in men and were adjusted for age, WHR, DBP, smoking status, antihypertensive drug use and family history of premature CVD age, WHR, DBP, smoking status, antihypertensive drug use and positive family history of premature CVD in women. AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) is a statistical estimate of the trade-off between the likelihood of a model against its complexity; a lower value of AIC indicates a better model fit. The discrimination ability of the models was calculated using the C index. A value of 1 denotes perfect discrimination and a value of 0.5 is no better than chance. *SD of log-transformed.

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