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Table 5 Effectiveness of scoring systems for predicting severity, mortality, ARDS, and ARF in AP

From: Accuracy of conventional and novel scoring systems in predicting severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study

  Cutoff AUC (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI)
Severity
 Ranson score ≥2 0.861 (0.844–0.876) 0.741 (0.707–0.774) 0.864 (0.843–0.883) 0.762 (0.728–0.794) 0.850 (0.828–0.870)
 Glasgow score ≥ 2 0.865 (0.849–0.881) 0.708 (0.672–0.742) 0.900 (0.882–0.917) 0.807 (0.773–0.838) 0.840 (0.818–0.860)
 BISAP ≥ 2 0.829 (0.811–0.846) 0.649 (0.612–0.685) 0.869 (0.848–0.887) 0.744 (0.707–0.778) 0.808 (0.785–0.830)
 PASS ≥ 90 0.778 (0.759–0.797) 0.889 (0.863–0.912) 0.545 (0.516–0.574) 0.534 (0.505–0.564) 0.893 (0.868–0.915)
 CSSS ≥ 2 0.816 (0.797–0.833) 0.605 (0.568–0.642) 0.894 (0.876–0.910) 0.750 (0.712–0.786) 0.812 (0.791–0.832)
Mortality
 Ranson score ≥3 0.693 (0.671–0.714) 0.515 (0.389–0.640) 0.976 (0.967–0.983) 0.500 (0.376–0.624) 0.978 (0.968–0.985)
 Glasgow score ≥ 2 0.736 (0.715–0.756) 0.727 (0.604–0.830) 0.690 (0.668–0.712) 0.080 (0.060–0.105) 0.986 (0.977–0.991)
 BISAP ≥ 3 0.789 (0.770–0.807) 0.606 (0.478–0.724) 0.882 (0.866–0.897) 0.160 (0.117–0.211) 0.984 (0.976–0.989)
 PASS ≥ 190 0.858 (0.841–0.874) 0.788 (0.670–0.879) 0.809 (0.790–0.827) 0.133 (0.101–0.170) 0.990 (0.984–0.995)
 CSSS ≥ 3 0.759 (0.738–0.778) 0.515 (0.389–0.640) 0.872 (0.856–0.887) 0.130 (0.092–0.177) 0.980 (0.972–0.986)
ARDS
 Ranson score ≥2 0.745 (0.725–0.765) 0.761 (0.672–0.836) 0.666 (0.644–0.689) 0.129 (0.105–0.157) 0.977 (0.967–0.985)
 Glasgow score ≥2 0.784 (0.764–0.802) 0.779 (0.691–0.851) 0.705 (0.683–0.726) 0.147 (0.119–0.178) 0.980 (0.971–0.987)
 BISAP ≥2 0.834 (0.816–0.851) 0.823 (0.740–0.888) 0.710 (0.688–0.731) 0.156 (0.127–0.187) 0.984 (0.975–0.990)
 PASS ≥ 195 0.936 (0.924–0.946) 0.903 (0.833–0.950) 0.860 (0.843–0.876) 0.296 (0.248–0.347) 0.993 (0.987–0.996)
 CSSS ≥ 2 0.820 (0.802–0.838) 0.752 (0.662–0.829) 0.731 (0.709–0.752) 0.154 (0.125–0.187) 0.978 (0.969–0.986)
ARF
 Ranson score ≥ 3 0.707 (0.686–0.728) 0.507 (0.422–0.592) 0.792 (0.772–0.811) 0.169 (0.134–0.208) 0.951 (0.938–0.961)
 Glasgow score ≥ 3 0.734 (0.711–0.752) 0.542 (0.457–0.626) 0.857 (0.841–0.872) 0.213 (0.172–0.259) 0.963 (0.954–0.972)
 BISAP ≥ 3 0.781 (0.761–0.800) 0.346 (0.283–0.413) 0.897 (0.882–0.911) 0.300 (0.244–0.361) 0.915 (0.901–0.928)
 PASS ≥ 165 0.868 (0.852–0.883) 0.831 (0.759–0.889) 0.754 (0.733–0.774) 0.219 (0.185–0.257) 0.982 (0.973–0.988)
 CSSS ≥ 3 0.816 (0.798–0.834) 0.578 (0.492–0.660) 0.895 (0.879–0.909) 0.313 (0.257–0.373) 0.962 (0.952–0.971)
  1. ARDS Acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARF Acute renal failure, AP Acute pancreatitis, AUC Area under the curve, PPV Positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value; BUN Blood urea nitrogen; BISAP Bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis, PASS Pancreatic activity scoring system, CSSS Chinese simple scoring system, CI confidence interval