Table 2 Associations of mean, visit-to-visit variability and trajectory of TG with incident T2DM

Mean level

< 1.70 mmol/L

2962 (94)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

≥1.70 mmol/L

1513 (129)

2.79 (2.14-3.64)

< 0.001

1.67 (1.25-2.21)

0.000

Total

Quartiles of the mean level (mmol/L)

Q1 (0.32,0.97)

1106 (9)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Q2 (0.98,1.37)

1146 (39)

3.98 (1.93-8.22)

0.000

3.38 (1.63-7.00)

0.001

Q3 (1.38,1.97)

1107 (77)

8.43 (4.22-16.81)

< 0.001

5.01 (2.47-10.15)

< 0.001

Q4 (1.98,12.14)

1116 (98)

10.83 (5.47-21.44)

< 0.001

5.39 (2.66-10.90)

< 0.001

P_trend

< 0.001

< 0.001

< 0.001

Per 1-unit increase

1.41 (1.31-1.51)

< 0.001

1.26 (1.15-1.39)

< 0.001

Quartiles of SD

Q1 (0.01,0.15)

1093 (27)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Q2 (0.16,0.26)

1164 (42)

1.43 (0.88-2.32)

0.149

1.20 (0.73-1.95)

0.471

Q3 (0.27,0.43)

1078 (59)

2.28 (1.45-3.60)

0.000

1.60 (1.00-2.56)

0.049

Q4 (0.44,11.26)

1140 (95)

3.27 (2.13-5.02)

< 0.001

1.86 (1.20-2.89)

0.006

P_trend

< 0.001

< 0.001

0.014

Trajectories

Low

3263 (113)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Moderate

Moderate-high

980 (84)

200 (23)

2.49 (1.88-3.30)

3.82 (2.44-5.99)

< 0.001

< 0.001

1.51 (1.12-2.03)

2.55 (1.62-4.03)

0.007

< 0.001

High

32 (3)

4.34 (1.37-13.71)

0.012

1.93 (0.60-6.19)

0.268

P_trend

< 0.001

< 0.001

0.000

Exclusion of prediabetes

Quartiles of the mean level (mmol/L)

Q1 (0.32,0.96)

1061 (5)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Q2 (0.97,1.33)

1045 (21)

3.99 (1.51-10.59)

0.005

3.58 (1.34-9.59)

0.011

Q3 (1.34,1.93)

1047 (40)

7.93 (3.13-20.10)

< 0.001

5.02 (1.92-13.11)

0.001

Q4 (1.94,12.14)

1057 (51)

10.46 (4.18-26.22)

< 0.001

5.62 (2.13-14.81)

0.001

Trajectories

Low

3056 (61)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Moderate

940 (42)

2.30 (1.55-3.41)

< 0.001

1.36 (0.88-2.08)

0.163

Moderate-high

190 (12)

3.55 (1.91-6.59)

< 0.001

2.43 (1.28-4.63)

0.007

High

24 (2)

6.72 (1.64-27.58)

0.008

2.09 (0.48-9.03)

0.324