Table 3 Associations of mean, visit-to-visit variability and trajectory of TC with incident T2DM

Mean level

< 5.18 mmol/L

2915 (130)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

≥5.18 mmol/L

1560 (93)

1.35 (1.04-1.77)

0.026

1.01 (0.77-1.33)

0.926

Total

Quartiles of the mean level (mmol/L)

Q1 (2.48,4.38)

1114 (44)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Q2 (4.39,4.88)

1126 (58)

1.32 (0.89-1.95)

0.166

1.07 (0.72-1.59)

0.738

Q3 (4.89,5.40)

1113 (51)

1.24 (0.83-1.85)

0.305

0.98 (0.65-1.48)

0.932

Q4 (5.41,8.74)

1122 (70)

1.63 (1.11-2.37)

0.012

1.07 (0.73-1.59)

0.724

P_trend

0.082

0.085

0.955

Per 1-unit increase

1.26 (1.07-1.48)

0.006

1.01 (0.85-1.20)

0.884

Quartiles of SD

Q1 (0.02,0.23)

1108 (47)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Q2 (0.24,0.34)

1161 (52)

1.14 (0.77-1.68)

0.529

0.99 (0.66-1.47)

0.944

Q3 (0.35,0.47)

1103 (44)

1.04 (0.69-1.57)

0.847

0.96 (0.63-1.45)

0.834

Q4 (0.48,2.02)

1103 (80)

1.79 (1.25-2.56)

0.002

1.19 (0.83-1.72)

0.350

P_trend

0.001

0.003

0.598

Trajectories

Low

1608 (69)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Moderate

2212 (108)

1.19 (0.88-1.61)

0.263

0.98 (0.72-1.33)

0.882

High

655 (46)

1.74 (1.20-2.53)

0.004

1.18 (0.80-1.74)

0.406

P_trend

0.024

0.014

0.565

Exclusion of prediabetes

Quartiles of the mean level (mmol/L)

Q1 (2.48,4.37)

1044 (21)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Q2 (4.38,4.87)

1057 (30)

1.41 (0.81-2.46)

0.230

1.34 (0.76-2.35)

0.315

Q3 (4.88,5.39)

1058 (22)

1.10 (0.60-2.00)

0.760

0.97 (0.53-1.78)

0.921

Q4 (5.40,8.74)

1051 (44)

2.12 (1.26-3.56)

0.005

1.56 (0.91-2.67)

0.109

Trajectories

Low

749 (13)

1.00 (ref)

1.00 (ref)

Moderate

1767 (46)

1.52 (0.82-2.81)

0.185

1.26 (0.68-2.36)

0.466

Moderate-high

1373 (43)

1.86 (1.00-3.47)

0.049

1.35 (0.71-2.56)

0.364

High

321 (15)

2.81 (1.34-5.90)

0.007

1.76 (0.82-3.79)

0.150